Decision Support Tools Conditional Profits

Question: Discuss about theDecision Support Tools forConditional Profits. Answer: The conditional profits as calculated by the manufacturer can be shown as: p(s1) = 0.3 p(s2) = 0.7 s1 s2 a1 30,000 16,000 a2 10,000 24,000 Table 1: The Conditional Profits (source created by author) Part a From the decision support tools we can use the method of Expected value with perfect information criteria (EVPI). By using the method of EVPI For the method For the method In comparing the EVPI for the production methods a1 and a2 we find that the EVPI of a1 is 20,200 and a2 is 19,800. The EVPI of a1 is greater than the EVPI of a2. Hence the manufacturer should choose a1. Part b According to the marketing consultant considering prior probabilities the demand being good s1 is 0.35 and the demand being poor s2 = 0.65 p(s1) = 0.35 p(s2) = 0.65 s1 s2 a1 30,000 16,000 a2 10,000 24,000 Table 2: The Decision tools with prior probabilities (source created by author) Using the EVPI method: For the method For the method Thus with the condition of prior probabilities the EVPI for the method a1 is more than a2. The EVPI for a1 is 20,900 and for a2 is 19,100. Thus with the condition of prior probabilities the management should choose method a1. Part c According to the marketing consultant considering posterior probabilities the demand being good s1 is 0.80 and the demand being poor s2 = 0.20 p(s1) = 0.80 p(s2) = 0.20 s1 s2 a1 30,000 16,000 a2 10,000 24,000 Table 3: The Decision tools with posterior probabilities (source created by author) Using the EVPI method: For the method For the method Thus with the condition of posterior probabilities the EVPI for the method a1 is more than a2. The EVPI for a1 is 27,200 and for a2 is 12,800. Thus with the condition of prior probabilities the management should choose method a1. Part d In all the above three methods when the management has made has done his own calculations, with the prior and posterior probabilities (as defined by the consultant) the method a1 provides the maximum benefit to the manufacturer. Thus we do not find any reason to hire the consultant (Kerzner, 2014). Step 1 The first step is to calculate the cumulative probabilities for both the time between arrivals of the patients and the service time of the patients. The random numbers are generated for the cumulative probabilities. Figure 1: Screenshot of the Simulation 1 (source created by author) From the above simulation we see that the first patient arrives 25 minutes after the service starts. Since the nurse is then free hence the service of the patient starts immediately. The service nurse was then waiting for 15 minutes. For the first patient the time taken by the nurse was 25 minutes. The service time for the patient ends 40 minutes after the start of service. The second patient arrives at 40 minutes. Since by this time the nurse has finished her work with the first patient, she can start her nursing with the 2nd patient immediately. The nursing activity on the 2nd patient takes place for 30 minutes. She finishes her work at 70 minutes after the start of the service. The 3rd patient arrives 65 minutes after the start of service. Since the nurse has not finished her task with the 2nd patient hence the 3rd patient has to wait for 5minutes before activity on the patient can start. From the simulation, we can see that from 65 minutes till 120 minutes there is a patient always waiting since the nurse has not finished her activity with the previous patient. Thus there is a requirement of a second nurse accordingly (Render et.al., 2014). References Kerzner, H.R., (2014). Project Management 2.0. John Wiley Sons Render, B., Ralph, M.S.J, Hanna, M.E., Hale, T.S. (2014). Quantitative analysis for management. 12th Ed. Pearson Education

Writing from the Center and Margin An Analysis of Mary Shelley’s Creation of Frankenstein Essay Example

Writing from the Center and Margin: An Analysis of Mary Shelley’s Creation of Frankenstein Essay Women are sociological chameleons; they take on the class, lifestyle, and culture of their male counterparts. However, it can also be argued that women themselves have formed a subculture within the framework of a nascent society unified by the values, conventions, experiences and behaviors impinging on each individual. Such a subculture is custodial although a thriving and positive entity (Robbins 13). It is custodial as it enables the perpetuation of a group’s subordination [it contains a set of opinions, prejudices, tastes, and values prescribed to a subordinate group that enables the perpetuation of its subordination].  A thriving and positive entity, on the other hand, as it enables the formation of self-awareness [such a subculture is seen as fostering the creation of a collective identity outside the conceptual framework of the male culture]. Women, in this sense, may be seen as possessing what Chela Sandoval refers to as an â€Å"oppositional consciousness†: t he ability to read and write culture on multiple levels (qtd in Kaplan 187). Within this situation, the woman is placed on the edge. The edge, in this sense, may be seen as a region where there is a potential for isolation and despair but most importantly growth and liberty. Such a situation is captured succinctly by Bell Hooks as she states Living as we did-on the edge-we developed a particular way of seeing reality. We looked both from outside in and from inside out. We focused our attention on the center as well as on the margin [and hence] we understood both (23). The political situation of margin and center relies on the existence of a conceptual framework where marginal perspectives are perceived not as â€Å"passive recipients of ready made images and structures (but as) complex, sophisticated views† which filter and mediate other perspectives (Kaplan, 358). In the process of recreation, local meanings are created which in turn lead the way for the formation of hybrid cultural relics and subjects. Such an occurrence leads to the displacement of identities, persons and meanings. Deleuze and Guattari refer this as the process of â€Å"deterritorialization† (62). We will write a custom essay sample on Writing from the Center and Margin: An Analysis of Mary Shelley’s Creation of Frankenstein specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on Writing from the Center and Margin: An Analysis of Mary Shelley’s Creation of Frankenstein specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on Writing from the Center and Margin: An Analysis of Mary Shelley’s Creation of Frankenstein specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer Gilles Deleuze and Felix Guattari use the term to locate the moment of alienation and exile in language and literature. In the process of deterritorialization, one is able to achieve the effects of the radical distanciation of the signifier and the signified resulting to the estrangement of meanings and utterances. â€Å"This defamiliarization enables imagination, even if it produces alienation ‘to express another community, to force the means for another consciousness and another sensibility’† (Kaplan, 358). In the process, we no longer delineate ourselves to specific literatures, which we consider as the works of  Ã¢â‚¬Å"masters†, but what we designate is the â€Å"revolutionary condition† for the formation of a new form of literature which â€Å"travels and moves between centers and margins† (Kaplan, 358). Within this context the development of personal and political identity are established or pushed through by citing the differences of margin and center. Hence, one can develop one’s identity by rewriting and hence redefining the signifiers attached to the self within a particular domineering culture. Displaced individuals [which include subjects of gender and sexual discrimination] recognize the effects of this situation. Mary Shelley, a multi-faceted female writer during the period of Romanticism [Romantic Era in English Literature] recognized the possibility of forming a strategic response against the language, which delineates the women’s existence through her creation of Frankenstein. Frankenstein [The Modern Prometheus] has been seen as a critique of the industrial revolution, of value-free experimental science, and of romantic Prometheanism, the philosophy to which Percy Shelley [her husband] and his friends [specifically Lord Byron] subscribed. Such a philosophy assumed that there ought to be no limits to human experience and experimentation (Bloom 214-15). It is important to note that the creation of Frankenstein was highly influenced by the two aforementioned figures [Percy Shelley and Lord Byron]. The novel was written during 1816 when Mary Shelley and her husband visited Switzerland in order to meet Lord Byron [George Gordon]. During this period, Byron proposed that each member of the group should write a ghost story. However, amongst the three, it was only Mary Shelley who was able to finish the construction of the story. The result of her efforts is a tale that exerts a hypnotic force on the reader. Apart from the gripping character of her work, Shelley enabled the creation of a genuine literary myth. However, due to the conditions of her time [English culture perceived women’s thoughts as irrational and insignificant], the novel was initially published anonymously. It was only during 1831 that she revised the initial edition and published it in her own name. The differences amongst the two editions mirror the influence of the two aforementioned figures [Percy Shelley and Lord Byron] in the construction of Frankenstein. Furthermore, both editions mirror Shelley’s development as a writer. Joseph states, although the initial edition was characterized with a spite of errors [those of a novice]†¦the central idea is carried through with considerable skill and force† thereby mirroring the promise of Mary Shelley as a writer (v). I would like to note, however, that Shelley’s revised edition of the novel also mirror her separation from the Romanticism that characterized and defined her husband’s [as well as Lord Byron’s views]. Such a separation is evident in the fatalism evident in the second version of Frankenstein. As opposed to the initial version, the second version of the aforementioned novel may be seen as characterizing Shelley’s fatalistic conception of human existence. Human life is thereby portrayed as ruled by an indifferent power capable of betraying human desires for the good. During 1818, Frankenstein was depicted as in possession of both free will and autonomy. He was depicted as an individual capable of abandoning his quest for the â€Å"principle of life†. Along with this, he was depicted as an individual who could have cared for his creation. Dr. Frankenstein’s initial depiction was thereby that of an individual immune to differing potentialities. Such a perspective is highly characteristic of Shelley and Byron’s Romanticism. The revision of the novel, however, depicted an individual prone to chance. Thus, Victor Frankenstein notes in the second version that â€Å"our souls constructed†¦by such slight ligaments (that) we are bound to propensity or ruin (Shelley 239). He further mentions in the later part of the passage that salvation could have been possible for the characters, however such a salvation was denied due to the potency of destiny. He states, destiny’s â€Å"immutable laws decreed my (Dr. Frankenstein’s) utter and terrible destruction† (Shelley 239). As opposed to such a view, one may state that the fatalism within the novel was not really a departure from her husband’s and her neighbor’s (Lord Byron) Romanticism. Rather, such a use of fatalism was meant to place emphasis on the use of rationality in the assessment of devastating moral occurrences. The aforementioned instance, in this sense, may be seen as Dr. Frankenstein’s attempts at rationalization and self-deception. However, as opposed to this view, the Romantics themselves recognized the futility of acts of self-deception as well as the paradoxical character of such acts. Note, for instance the manner in which Percy Shelley states â€Å"the secret Strength of things/Which govern thought, and to the infinite dome/ Of Heaven is as a law†. Such a passage may be perceived, as Shelley’s [his philosophical view’s] inclination towards the rules of rationality taking control over silence and fatality. Within a rational world, self-deceptio n stands as a paradoxical concept due to the necessity of knowing and hence believing a thing, concept, or idea, which one chooses to contradict and negate. Such an act thereby amounts to a form of succumbing to the silence of fatality. Furthermore, in relation to this, thoughts of fatalism were also apparent in the female character of the novel. If it is the case that the second version of Frankenstein mirrors an adherence to fatalism on Mary Shelley’s part, one wonders how it is possible for her to portray Sandoval’s conception of oppositional consciousness. Note that oppositional consciousness stands as a manner of creating a new conception of reality as opposed to the predominant conception of reality evident within one’s conceptual framework. Percy Shelley stands as a direct influence on the shaping of Mary Shelley’s thoughts. Although May Shelley belonged to a highly radical family [being the daughter of Wollstonecraft and Goodwin], the early death of her mother [Wollstonecraft] and thereby her initial experience of family life as highly patriarchal in character [in the sense that the man is the only member of the family retained amongst her parents] enabled her to be highly situated within the auspices of male rationality. The later part of her novel, in this sense may be depicted as depicti ng the manner in which both men and women are recognized as affected by the custodial character of a patriarchal culture. However, due to the dominance of male creation [in terms of meaning] within this aforementioned culture, the male stands as the one directly affected by the irrationality of his presumed rationality [which is evident in the fate of Dr. Frankenstein and his creature]. Frankenstein, in this sense, may be seen as Mary Shelley’s depiction of the mistaken assumptions of her time, which mirrors the mistakes of patriarchy and its effects upon itself. Her novel thereby opts for the recreation of the margins so as to affect the foundational propositions and hence foundational truths depicted within the center of the patriarchal ideology.

Compare and contrast art history Essays - Art Genres, Painting

The two works of art that you need to compare and contrast are in textbook on the following pages: page 756 (Book D), Landscape with Cattle and Peasants and page 812 (Book E), The Slave Ship (Slavers Throwing Overboard the Dead and Dying, Typhoon Coming On) Claude Lorrain, Landscape with Cattle and Peasants, 1629 -produced tons of landscapes, no Bibilical matter, connection to dutch painting, typical Claude landscape,seems random, but has formality to it, foreground triangles leading into background triangles leading into water, cows chilling, people in conversation, almost exclusively at sunrise or sunset, golden light filter through landscape. Trees frame picture Lorrain's walks and explorations around the countryside of Rome provided the main inspiration for some of his most famous landscape paintings. He was fascinated with portraying nature accurately and playing with the fall of light on his subjects and scenes. Lorrain is most noted for not letting nature be sacrificed to any historical scenes being portrayed in his artwork. He believed that myths and historic events could be depicted and yet still be made beautiful and enhanced by their powerful natural surroundings. Even though this specific painting does not convey an important event, the awe-inspiring landscape is still the focus and enhances and almost beautifies the mundane task taking place in the foreground Description[edit] The first impression that the painting creates is of an enormous deep-red sunset over a stormy sea, an indication of an approaching typhoon.[3] Upon closer inspection one can discern a ship sailing off into the distance. The masts of the ship are red, matching the blood-red colour of the sky and the sickly copper colour of the water, which serves to blur the lines between various objects in the painting.[2] The ship's sails are also not unfurled, revealing that the ship is preparing for the typhoon. In the foreground can be seen a number of bodies floating in the water; their dark skin and chained hands and feet indicate that they are slaves, thrown overboard from the ship. Looking even more carefully, one can see fish and sea monsters swimming in the water, possibly preparing to eat the slaves, and sea gulls circling overhead above the chaos. Consistent with Turner's emphasis on colour in many of his other works, the painting's central focus is on the interactions of various colours. Few defined brush strokes appear in the painting, and objects, colours, and figures become indistinct. Rather, objects are defined by their colours in the painting, and some objects (like the bodies of the slaves and the incoming storm) have no real border at all, being solely defined by the contrast with the pigments around them. The most prominent colours are the red of the sunset which encroaches into the water and ship as well, and the maroon of the bodies and hands of the slaves.[2] Style and interpretation[edit] Turners emphasis on colour rather than design is typical of many Romantic works of the time. The indistinct shapes and the pervasiveness of the sunset's blood-red colour serve to convey a focus on nature and illustrate the idea that nature is superior to man. Other colours in the painting, such as the cool blue of the ocean and the black caps of the water, bring the ocean's hues to life and give the viewer a sense of the true emotions of the natural world. The fact that the figures in the painting are depicted as minuscule and that even the ship is shunted to the background in favour of the water and the sun further serve to decrease the emphasis on humanity and transfer it to nature.[2] By placing the emphasis on nature rather than on figures or objects, Turner evokes the concept of the sublime, coined by Edmund Burke. The idea of the sublime is of the utter powerlessness and terror of humanity in the face of nature; by dramatising the strength of the waves and sun, Turner uses The Slave Ship to perfectly encapsulate Burke's definition of the term. Turner's decision to paint the work with a series of quick, frenzied brush strokes rather than carefully defined lines adds to the intensity of the painting, serving to make the viewer feel even more overwhelmed.[2] Though the painting's size is relatively small compared

Free Essays on Forester Critique, What I Blelieve

Every human being has personal beliefs ranging from simple to quite complex. In the first line of his essay, â€Å"What I Believe,† E. M. Forester confronts the reader with the seemingly irrational statement â€Å"I do not believe in belief.† This however is not at all true. Forester is a man with many beliefs. In his essay he expresses his opinions and beliefs on a wide range of subjects. The introductory paragraph of the essay explains what the society of human beings needs to keep itself from self destructing like a light bulb that has burned brightly for so long but unexpectedly fizzles out. According to Forester, â€Å"tolerance, good temper, and sympathy† will do nothing more for the human race than become an unattainable ideal for people to pine after. World peace is already a clichà ©, having been used by Ms. America contestants for years, and most recently President George Bush. Universal tolerance will never exist because no one who actually says they want it believes that it is possible. The advocates of world â€Å"tolerance, good temper, and sympathy† are making an attempt to manipulate the feelings of their audience, not make the world a better place to live in. They know that they won’t be blamed for not fulfilling the promise of a better world, because it does not exist and cannot be made. Forester seems oblivious to the fact that bad things bind the group. Americans take an event like those on September 11th, and unify. While the country was unified under a blanket of grief and patriotism, unfortunately it also grew intolerant and unsympathetic towards anyone with an opinion that did not coincide with those of the masses. Contrary to Forester’s belief, the human race thrives on hate and ill will. This is a world â€Å"rent by religious and racial persecution† in Forester’s eyes. This is true. These lesions under the skin of human society will never go away even though they will diminish over time with occasional fla... Free Essays on Forester Critique, What I Blelieve Free Essays on Forester Critique, What I Blelieve Every human being has personal beliefs ranging from simple to quite complex. In the first line of his essay, â€Å"What I Believe,† E. M. Forester confronts the reader with the seemingly irrational statement â€Å"I do not believe in belief.† This however is not at all true. Forester is a man with many beliefs. In his essay he expresses his opinions and beliefs on a wide range of subjects. The introductory paragraph of the essay explains what the society of human beings needs to keep itself from self destructing like a light bulb that has burned brightly for so long but unexpectedly fizzles out. According to Forester, â€Å"tolerance, good temper, and sympathy† will do nothing more for the human race than become an unattainable ideal for people to pine after. World peace is already a clichà ©, having been used by Ms. America contestants for years, and most recently President George Bush. Universal tolerance will never exist because no one who actually says they want it believes that it is possible. The advocates of world â€Å"tolerance, good temper, and sympathy† are making an attempt to manipulate the feelings of their audience, not make the world a better place to live in. They know that they won’t be blamed for not fulfilling the promise of a better world, because it does not exist and cannot be made. Forester seems oblivious to the fact that bad things bind the group. Americans take an event like those on September 11th, and unify. While the country was unified under a blanket of grief and patriotism, unfortunately it also grew intolerant and unsympathetic towards anyone with an opinion that did not coincide with those of the masses. Contrary to Forester’s belief, the human race thrives on hate and ill will. This is a world â€Å"rent by religious and racial persecution† in Forester’s eyes. This is true. These lesions under the skin of human society will never go away even though they will diminish over time with occasional fla...

Sugar Cane Alley Video Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Sugar Cane Alley Video - Assignment Example Indeed, formal education had thought him that nothing could be more enslaving than for his true identity to be missing. In his search for knowledge therefore, Jose was also seriously searching for his true identity and a self will that would make him accept his roots and identity as the best. After all it is said that even if the back of your teeth is sour, it remains where your tongue licks. This means that even if you shy away from your identity because of whatever negative tag it may have, it remains your roots. For Jose to have said that "tomorrow Ill return to Fort de France and Ill take my Black Shack Alley with me" therefore means that Jose had finally come to find the solution to the puzzle he had been trying to solve since the beginning of the movie. The puzzle of his identity – the puzzle of who he was! The solution was that he was Black and came from the true Black identity, which is of course Africa and for the fact that he admired and revered where he was coming from, he was ready to take his identity along with him without fear or shyness. The statement therefore means the discovery of Jose’s identity and his readiness to embrace his true and original identity without

Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words - 2

Research Paper Example One of the spiders, which have recently become a primary concern of those living in Salt Lake City is the Hobo spider. The scientific classification for the Hobo spider is Tegenaria agrestis. It is in the family Aglenidae. It is not originally native to North America, but was brought over when Western Europeans began to colonize North America. The species was originally discovered in Europe by C.A. Walkenaer in 1802 and then was rediscovered in the United States in 1936 by Harriet Exline. The appearance of the Hobo Spider varies greatly, however there are a few core characteristics, which make it easier to identify. The abdomen has v-shaped patterns on its abdomen which aim down toward the head of the spider. They also have a light stripe, which runs down the middle of the sternum. Considering the size of typical spiders, the Hobo Spider is of a larger variation, usually ranging from twelve to eighteen millimeters in body length. Compared to other spiders, they have very poor eyesigh t and lack the normal climbing ability that many other spiders share. There are also sexual differences, which allow for further identification. The male Hobo Spider has two pedipalps in front of its two front legs, which is homologous to the male gentials in humans. The female Hobo Spiders have a much larger abdomen than the male Hobo Spider and lack the pedipalps (Ethan 4-12). ... After the new spiders hatch, they spend a majority of the first part of their life underground feeding and growing. After they have reached maturity, they begin searching for a mate. The females remain stationary and build their webs. The males come to the females. After mating, the males die first and then are followed by the females. The cycle then repeats itself over again. In the predator-prey relationship, the Hobo Spider does not fall at the top of the food chain. The Hobo Spider has three natural enemies that control the population: the preying mantis, wasps, and other spiders. Hobo Spiders especially have the disadvantage compared to other types of spiders. The first is that they lack the climbing ability and ability to escape from other spiders’ webs, which leaves them extremely vulnerable. The Hobo Spider tends to feed on smaller insects that it can catch, due to the type of web that it spins. It is known as a funnel web spinner. They are typically long in shape and have an empty hole in the middle in which the spider sits waiting for prey. Compared to other types of webs, they are not as thick (Vest). The venom of the Hobo Spider is potent. One important fact regarding bites made by the Hobo Spider is that those made in defense typically do not carry venom, compared to if it was the result of the spider hunting. This is because venom requires energy for the spider to make, so the spider tries to conserve this. The severity of the bite is often dependent on where the bite is located and how old the spider is. Another sexual difference between these spiders is that the male’s venom is more potent than that of the female. The venom is similar to the brown recluse in that it is a necrotic

Problems in the Workplace Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3000 words

Problems in the Workplace - Essay Example Workers in the 21st century have increasingly raised concerns on how technology has changed their tasks as well as way of life, which could possibly lower performance. Some have lost their jobs because of mechanization and use of computers implying high level of unemployment. It has therefore become necessary for management to formulate policies for introducing new technology that do not lower workers ego but instead instills morale and motivation. In this paper, the issue of negative impact of technology on workers shall be discussed; issues related to technology change in working environment and suggest how to develop a mechanism to solve negative impact of technology, its implementation and suggestion on how to improve workers perception on new technology. Technology is in recent days among the greatest challenges that employees have because they fear losing their jobs after introduction of computers and other devices. Although job has been made easier and efficient, technology has lowered workers morale especially those that are convinced that use of computers, robots and advanced machinery will eventually replace them (Hodgetts & Hegar, 2008). Many workers are therefore not ready to embrace new technology; instead, they are resisting management move to introduce new technologically advanced equipment. This has made work become ineffective since workers are always on go-slows in embracing new technology especially the one that is deemed to take away their positions. Resistance has especially come from workers who are not skilled, those that like paper work and they fear that lack of knowledge on how to use computers can possibly eliminate them. Workers resistance to technology change has held some organization behind thus not sustain ing stiff competition especially in the 21st century. However, workers involvement in decision making and implementation of strategies to embrace technology changes has created a good working environment since